gplesno.blogg.se - Nightmares of the bottom

The Padres finished with a combined total of -23 IOAA, which was dead last in baseball.

How do the Padres stack up according to IOAA? There’s obviously more to it than that and you should absolutely read about the construction of this metric from the folks who designed it, but that’s the basic concept of IOAA. Pretty straightforward, right? This is referred to by Tango as the “distance/time intercept model”. If he doesn’t make that play, he is debited 0.1 outs. converts a play with a 10% estimated success rate into an out, he is credited with 0.9 outs. Basically, Statcast freezes the play at each action point and asks “what percentage of the time is this type of play converted into an out?” These probabilities are then multiplied together to get the “estimated success rate” of that particular play, and the fielder is credited (or debited) accordingly. This system is extremely intuitive, so it doesn’t take any special skill set to be able to understand how it works since it’s mostly built around distance and time.

The race to the bag (on ground balls) – the probability of the ball beating the runner to the base given the distance of the fielder from the base and the speed of the runner.

The fielder retrieving the ball cleanly.

The fielder arriving at the ball (a.k.a.

If you don’t care to do that and would instead prefer to see a quick/subpar description from yours truly, IOAA uses three “action points” to estimate the defender’s probability of success. So, how does this thing work?įor a much more thorough description, use the resources above. This is another fantastic resource for infield defense. Note: Fielding Bible’s updated DRS metric has also made major strides in this area, using their new PART system to eliminate positioning from their formula. Per Statcast, we actually saw the 2019 Dodgers become the first team to shift 50% of the time, so it’s obviously difficult to accurately measure defensive value if half of our sample is eliminated. The problem with this is that teams are shifting more than ever before. Previously, defensive metrics have usually eliminated shifted plays entirely since they weren’t able to accurately account for positioning. For a thorough breakdown of both IOAA and the history defensive metrics, Tango’s 21-page thesis on his website is the best resource available (seriously, take the time to read this – it will make you smarter). For an easy-to-read breakdown, check out Mike Petriello’s article on MLB.com.

For an in-depth discussion on IOAA from MLB’s Mike Petriello and Tom Tango himself, check out the most recent Statcast Podcast.

Designed by sabermetrics legend Tom Tango and the MLB Advanced Media (MLBAM) staff, IOAA is a major development for defensive metrics, finally eliminating the biggest hurdle for quantifying infield defense – positioning.

Statcast recently released their newest toy: Infield Outs Above Average (IOAA), and it has not disappointed.